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03 / AMT Setups

Return to value or accepted breakout?

Two situations can look similar on the first move beyond VAH. Rejection takes price back into value; acceptance builds activity outside. The book separates these scenarios and their invalidation.

What you need to understand

01

Return scenario

In a balanced context, price exceeds a boundary and returns inside. The scenario considers rotation toward POC and possibly the other boundary. Sustained trade and new volume outside contradict it.

02

Continuation scenario

The book calls for a break, acceptance and a boundary retest. A sustained return into the old balance invalidates the proposed continuation. Its timing thresholds are study rules, not universal laws.

03

Calculate before accepting a setup

The book’s example uses a hypothetical short at 5,216, stop at 5,234, POC at 5,200 and second target at 5,182. Risk is 18 points. The first potential gain is 16 points, or 0.89 R; the second is 34 points, or 1.89 R before costs. It is not exactly 2 R.

Return to value or accepted breakout?
Diagram extracted from the book in the selected language · Enlarge the original diagram ↗
Worked example

If your rule requires at least 2 R, this example fails it even before costs. Taking partial profit at POC changes the combined outcome again. Check the arithmetic rather than accepting a setup because the diagram looks convincing.

Common mistake

Entering on the first break or rounding 1.89 R to 2 R to make a trade fit the rule.

A more disciplined approach

Write context, trigger, invalidation and targets, then calculate the weighted outcome of planned exits. Reject a scenario that fails the criteria.

Simulation exercise

Review ten examples in replay, separating return-to-value and continuation. Calculate actual reward-to-risk before and after costs. Include cases with no qualifying entry.

Source: TUNTRADER book — Wajdi Mansour, PDF file pages: 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54.

Content summarized and adapted for the site, with calculations made explicit. Examples are not current recommendations.

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